The Shiller CAPE ratio now sits above 41. It was 32.6 before the 1929 crash. In 150 years of records it has been higher exactly once, at the top of the dot-com bubble.
Free Retirement Protection Guide. Plus up to 5% in bonus gold or silver with a qualifying purchase.*
Shiller CAPE ratio today. The long-run median is about 17.
What it reached before the crash of 1929.
The all-time record, set in December 1999.
5-Star Rated on Google · BBB Accredited
The people who warned about the last two bubbles before they broke are warning again. So are the institutions that are paid to stay calm.
Jeremy Grantham built his reputation warning about the dot-com and housing bubbles before they broke. He has called this the most expensive market in American history, and has said tech stocks could fall 70% or more and that early AI investors will "lose their shirts" the way investors did in the railroad and internet booms.
Michael Burry, the investor portrayed in The Big Short for calling the 2008 housing collapse, says markets are "deep in bubble territory" and that conditions resemble the final months of 1999. He has placed short positions against Nvidia and Palantir.
In its April 2026 Global Financial Stability Report, the International Monetary Fund wrote that risk asset prices are well above fundamentals, raising the risk of sharp corrections. Household balance sheets are now vulnerable to sharp corrections and prolonged declines in the S&P 500.
That last sentence is about you. Ten companies now make up roughly 41% of the S&P 500, and the largest seven are about a third of it by themselves. In 2008 the index fell 37% in a single year, and savers between 56 and 65 lost more than a quarter of their balance. The ones closest to retirement had the least time to earn it back. If you are 60, you do not have 15 years to wait.
Free Retirement Protection Guide, plus up to 5% in bonus gold or silver with a qualifying purchase.*
*With a qualifying purchase · Terms apply
The guide walks through what these valuations have meant historically, how physical gold and silver work, what they cost, and what the risks are. Read it at your own pace, with your family. Nothing is owed and nothing is promised.
The guide and consultation are free, with no obligation to purchase.